The conflict in Western Sahara has stalled the progress on North African regional integration. While Morocco, Algeria, and France have all tried to influence the outcome, the future of the Sahrawi people in Western Sahara depends to a great extent on whether the U.S. decides to enforce international law and UN resolutions, which would also help the U.S. retaliate against France for its position on Iraq, insisting upon the same principles France stressed about international legality. Thunderbird Professor and Middle East and North Africa expert Dr. Yahia H. Zoubir shares his perspective.

Western Sahara, a region bordered by Mauritania, Algeria and Morocco, is the last remaining colony in Africa. Previously a Spanish colony, but occupied by Morocco for 30 years, the Sahrawi people of Western Sahara have unsuccessfully battled for independence. This occupation violates the UN resolutions that recognize that the Sahrawis are entitled to a free and fair referendum to choose between independence or integration into Morocco.

In addition to the humanitarian toll and costs of over $2 billion since 1991, this conflict has been an impediment to North African regional integration, which would create regional cooperation, stability, and stronger relationships between Morocco and Algeria.

North African Regional Integration: The Potential
If the conflict could be resolved, the countries of North Africa could cooperate and Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia would represent a market of more than 70 million people rich with opportunity and natural resources to trade on the international markets and therefore form a stable region. For example, Algeria and Libya are very rich in hydrocarbon resources, and Morocco is rich in phosphates and has an appreciable agricultural wealth. Tunisia is known for its tourism industry, and Western Sahara is abundant in phosphates, other minerals and in fisheries. In fact, the coasts of Western Sahara have some of the most plentiful fish in the world.

An end to the conflict would also increase cooperation between Algeria and Morocco, and the two countries could play, in North Africa, the same role that Germany and France played in the European construction. Furthermore, economic and social development, coupled with greater democratization, would isolate radical Islamist forces produced by disenchantment and marginalization.

However, the positions of Morocco, Algeria, France and the United States, coupled with the lack of enforcement from the UN, have prolonged the conflict.

Morocco and Algeria
Morocco has tried to bolster its claims on Western Sahara through 30 years of colonization, recent "economic development" projects, and a military presence. Morocco maintains its position to preserve the resources of the territory and to ensure the internal stability of its kingdom. Because Morocco enjoys a great degree of sympathy in Paris, especially, and in Washington, Morocco’s delaying tactics have been successful.

By contrast, Algeria, home to more than 165,000 Sahrawi refugees, has maintained a consistent position in support of a referendum in Western Sahara for historical, geopolitical, and ideological reasons. Although Algeria’s position rests mainly on fears of Moroccan irredentism, some observers argue—unconvincingly—that Algeria supports an independent Sahrawi state because the creation or partition of such a state would allow Algeria to transport its oil to ports in the Atlantic Ocean.

Algeria’s opposition to Moroccan irredentism resulted in a near-war situation in the 1970s, and tension between the two powerful neighbors has persisted to this date. Their borders have been closed since 1994, a situation that has reduced circulation of people and goods, which in turn prevents the development of an integrated North African market that the United States has been supporting.

France
France, the former colonial power in North Africa, retains the preponderant great power role. With respect to the conflict in Western Sahara, France's official "neutrality" is largely influenced by France's pro-Moroccan policy, presently demonstrated by the friendship between President Jacques Chirac and King Mohammed VI, and reinforced by France's economic and cultural relations with Morocco. Neither conservative nor socialist political forces in France have provided support for the establishment of an independent Sahrawi state. Not being part of the French colonial sphere of influence, an independent Western Sahara could destabilize a fragile region that France considers vital from economic, strategic and military points of view. France pays particular attention to political and social unrest in North Africa, especially to Islamist groups intent on overthrowing the Algerian regime. France aims to achieve a subtle balance on issues where Algeria and Morocco disagree - trying not to alienate Algeria, but opposing actions potentially detrimental to the Moroccan regime and the leadership of the young monarch.

The United States
Though the United States, traditionally, has been a friend and ally to Morocco, cooperation between Algeria and the United States has grown even stronger after September 2001. Algeria, which suffered greatly from more than a decade of internal terrorism (more than 120,000 people perished since 1992), provided much information and expertise on terrorist organizations to the US. Furthermore, Algeria’s energy resources have made it an attractive place for American investment.

Thus, the US has adopted a more balanced approach to the conflict and provided backing to James A. Baker in his attempt to end the conflict in Western Sahara. In summer 2003, Baker submitted a peace proposal. The plan offers a 4-year transition period of large autonomy for Sahrawis before a referendum is held to determine whether Sahrawis wish to be independent or integrated to Morocco. Like Morocco, France is opposed to the Baker plan, but Algeria and the Sahrawis accepted the plan.

The results will depend on whether the United States decides to retaliate against France for its position on Iraq by forcing Morocco to comply with international law and UN resolutions and to accept the 2003 peace proposal, or by working with Spain and Algeria in the UN Security Council to isolate the French-Moroccan alliance. Should the United States and the European Union help bring about a definitive resolution to the conflict, there is no doubt that North Africa will grow prosperous and stable. An integrated market would bring peace, prosperity, and stability not only for North Africans themselves, but would also bring benefits for US and Europeans investors. Thus, a united North Africa is essential for the stability of this strategic Mediterranean region.

Thunderbird Professor of Global Business and Managing Director of Thunderbird Europe Yahia H. Zoubir holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from American University and completed doctoral coursework at Georgetown University. He can be contacted at zoubiry@t-bird.edu.

The opinions, positions and data expressed by authors contributing to Global Vista do not necessarily reflect the opinions or positions of the Global Vista editors, or the institutions with which the editors are affiliated, or Thunderbird, The American Graduate School of International Management.