Central Texas Economy In Perspective
Our monthly Economic Indicators report usually presents a ranking of the top 50 metros by rate of total nonfarm job growth over the preceding 12 months. The ranking in the table below varies from that by focusing on the private sector portion of job growth and expands the ranking to the 100 largest metros (inspired by a ranking presented in the Austin Business Journal last week).
The 15 metros above represent the fastest growing areas of the country (among the top 100 metros) for the 5 years ending November 2008 (the latest available month). We thought it would be interesting to contrast this period of performance with the preceding 5 years (1998-2003), as well as with the most recent 12-month period.
Austin’s 20.0% growth over the last 5 years puts it in second place among the nation’s large metros. In this period, all but 13 of the top 100 metros saw positive growth in private sector jobs. New Orleans and Detroit suffered the largest losses in the period (-12.4% and -11.1% respectively).
In the preceding 5 year period, Austin saw substantially less job growth, 6%, and ranked only 27th (this was a period when Austin’s population grew by nearly 20%). Of the 100 largest metros, 37 saw negative private sector job growth during this period. The greatest losers in this period were San Jose (-12.6) and San Francisco (-10.2%), two other areas where the tech bust hit hard. Other tech centers present a mix of positive (Raleigh) and negative (Seattle, Boston) growth. The fastest growing metros over 1998-2003 were Riverside (24.3%) and Las Vegas (21.5%).
The most robustly growing metros of the 2003-2008 period are seeing strikingly variable performance for the 12 months ending November 2008. Raleigh and Austin, nos. 1 and 2 of the 2003-2008 period show at 9th and 10th for the Nov 07-Nov. 08 period, but are among only 22 large metros with positive private sector job growth. Evidencing the comparative good condition of Texas in the current recession, Houston, Dallas, Ft. Worth, and San Antonio are also in the top 10.
For the 12 months ending in November, 39 states lost a combined total of 1,398,500 private sector jobs and 12 states and the District of Columbia added 247,500 jobs, 187,000 of those in Texas.
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