I believe that the winner in the election last Tuesday was not the Republican Party, but the independent (conservative) voters who showed their ability to be the difference maker. The loser was not President Obama and his administration, but the Democratic members of the House. They face an election in less than 12 months with an electorate that appears to be wandering back to the center. Of course the spin doctors from each party are at work.

If you listen to the Republicans spin masters there is no question that this election portends a great Republican success in 2010. President Obama is on the ropes. The health care reform legislation has been slowed down. Certainly it is the best news the Republican Party has had in the last 12 months and there is some truth in what they are saying.

If you listen to the White House the elections in New Jersey and Virginia were only “local” elections, where President Obama did not spend much time. The White House wants you to believe that the key election was in the 23rd District of New York, (Obama won the district by 5% in 2008) which was won by the Democratic candidate (endorsed by the Republican candidate) over the conservative candidate. I must admit this is the first time that I have heard that a congressional district is more important than two major states, but of course there are no restrictions on what the spin doctors put out.

The health care reform legislation has suffered collateral damage and its momentum has been slowed down in the Senate. The House passed the bill 220 to 215 with many, many, many compromises such as no money for abortions. As I have written many times the political calendar of a member of the House is two years (2010) and that of the President four years (2012). The President has three years to make amends, but a House member has less than a year. There would have to be a tremendous change in the electorate for the Republicans to take back the House. However, historically, mid-term elections of a new presidency usually involve the loss of some seats in the House and Senate. I believe this will be true in 2010. The only question is how many seats the Democratic Party will lose.

The Independent voters in these races confirmed that they are not in anyone’s pocket. The vote showed that they were attracted by the more conservative candidates and moved away from the position they had taken in 2008, where they supported Obama by an 8% margin. The large Democratic lead in the generic polls, i.e., who would you vote for in Congress a Republican or a Democrat, has diminished. The fight is going to be between the Democratic and Republican candidates as to who can attract the majority of the Independent conservative voters. There are 49 seats now held by Democrats, which were carried by Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008. In a recent meeting with John Boehner (R-OH), the Republican minority leader, he told me that the Republican Party is already running ads in these districts. If the Independent voters in these districts swing back to vote Republican a number of these seats will be lost.

The New York race was impressive in that the conservative candidate got 40% of the vote against both the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate who dropped out and endorsed the Democrat, and had a lot less money. The conservative candidate was a recent, largely unknown arrival to New York from Canada. Few voters knew him according to former Congressman Norman Lent (R-NY), “He bombed out in a pre-election interview as completely unfamiliar with local and federal issues. The Democratic candidate was well chosen, articulate and lived in the district.” With a good candidate this district could revert back to Republican in 2010.

Don’t forget the economy. One of the key political factors will be the unemployment rate in 2010. My guess is it will be somewhere around 10%. The Obama administration and the Democratic Party have violated one of the two Frey Rules of Politics: If you have to explain you are in trouble. Billions of dollars have been spent and where are the jobs? The fact is, it takes time to create more jobs. However, this does not make much difference to the person out of work or whose neighbor is out of work, or whose company is downsizing.

Always remember, a day in politics is a lifetime. This election was just the start of the 2010 mid-term elections. Stay tuned…

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Lou Frey represented East and Central Florida in the U. S. Congress from 1969 to 1979.  He was the fourth Republican elected to Congress from Florida since the late 1800's.  In his last election, he received nearly 80% of the vote.  He was one of five elected Republican leaders in the House of Representatives during the 93^rd and 94^th Congress.  He served on...