Editor's Note: The Lou Frey Institute's Symposium THE FIRST 100 DAYS: POLICIES AND APPROACHES FOR THE NEW ADMINISTRATION was held April 15, 2009
The daytime keynote speaker was Professor Stephen Wayne of Georgetown University. He spent some time discussing President Obama, the person. Prof. Wayne felt that after college Barack Obama was searching for his roots, and that he came to believe he was the personification of the “American Dream.” In his keynote address at the 2004 Democratic Convention, his theme was that we need to work together. This carried over to the 2008 campaign, where he won the primary because of a better run campaign and his emphasis on change. He has kept that campaign base active and the Web address has over 13 million people. These Web addresses have been accessed by the Democratic National Committee, which gives them a powerful base capable of quick action. Prof. Wayne says President Obama won the general election for three reasons. The first being President Bush’s abysmal approval rating, not much over 20%. The second was the shift in the partisan make-up of the voters. In the ‘80s both parties had equal approval ratings but in 2008, mainly because of President Bush’s low numbers, Democrats had a 9 point advantage in the election, which has not changed. Finally, Obama won because of the economic meltdown.
Prof. Wayne defined President Obama as a man who has a liberal heart but is also a pragmatist. He believes President Obama wants to govern from the center, which he says probably makes Jesse Jackson and Rush Limbaugh unhappy. President Obama does not like ideologues; he likes to have vigorous debate and then decide. The Professor compared that to President Bush, who he felt went more by his gut. He believes that President Obama has surrounded himself with extremely smart people, which has led to the charge that he is an elitist. He has overcome some of the campaign charges such as his inexperience by acting presidential. The debates were a great help, especially the 21 in the primary, showing that he could handle the issues and that he knew what was going on. Wayne feels the charge that President Obama is an elitist is true, and as a person he is somewhat withdrawn. He is more analytical than outgoing.
In talking about President Obama’s problems, Professor Wayne said he has to make 3,500 appointments and 480 of those have to be confirmed by the Senate. There are 1,800 people making up the Office of the President, and only a few of these need Senate approval. A little over eight months is the average time of previous Presidents for vetting a candidate, moving to confirmation and voting in the Senate. The Senate has confirmed 60 people so far, which is normal. Wayne pointed out that getting confirmed is a real pain. First is the FBI questionnaire, then the IRS gets involved, then there is a full FBI background check, then there is a Senate Subcommittee hearing and vote, then the full Senate Committee hearing and vote before it goes to the Senate Floor for approval. Someone did a study and said there are 2,800 details of your life that have to be listed. This problem is not unique to President Obama; all Presidents have faced this. There is one difference with President Obama, as he has created at least eleven “czars” (many in the Senate disagree) for various projects. President Obama feels he does not need Senate approval for his “czars.” President Obama believes he has to act with due speed, as his political clout will eventually wane. There is still a huge partisan division in our Country. Today President Obama has high approval by Democrats, but only 34% approval of Republicans. Despite the fact that he is smart and articulate, the real question is going to be: Will the programs he has proposed work? He has some time to do it, but not forever.
Professor Brian Gaines of the University of Illinois looked at the various polls affecting President Obama. He reminded everyone that after their first seven months, Ike, JFK and Lyndon Johnson all had approval ratings of over 70%. President Obama is under this, but not by much. The Republicans in the 2008 election stayed with President Bush, but Democrats’ approval rating and support of President Bush went down to 10%. President Obama today has a 34% approval rate by Republicans, 52% by Independents and 87% by Democrats. What normally moves approval ratings up is a crisis, such as 9/11. The “Honeymoon Period” and positive press coverage also moves up the approval ratings of a new President. In the long run what impacts the approval rating most is the economy. The stock market and unemployment are factors that many people focus on.
Professor Gaines feels that President Obama’s good press is starting to slip away. He used The Economist as an example. President Obama got high praise at the start, but now The Economist is questioning what he is doing. The fact that the President is liked more than the Congress is not news. Congress is not, and has not been for some time, liked by the public. Professor Gaines believes that there is about three months left in the “Honeymoon Period,” and President Obama’s popularity will drop, as he will make a lot of enemies within the Congress. Overseas President Obama’s popularity will slip, as every time he makes a decision affecting a foreign country there will be some who like it and some who don’t, such as recommending Turkey for membership in the European Union.
