It is frustrating that as soon as one campaign is over another starts. For instance, there is jockeying in the Republican Party among some Governors who did not make the cut last time, a Former Congressman from Ohio, and as always some U.S. Senators, as to who will be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012. At this point it looks like it does not make any difference, as President Obama is still popular. However, don’t forget that after Gulf War I in January and February of 1992, George H. W. Bush’s popularity was in the 90% range. No major Democrat wanted to run against him, as it appeared certain Bush would be the winner. An obscure Arkansas Governor named Bill Clinton decided to run and because of Bush’s perceived popularity did not have any heavyweight primary opposition, Bush managed to dissipate nearly all his popularity and Clinton won a relatively easy victory in a three-person race.
 
The jockeying has started in many states around the Country, especially where there is an open seat or the incumbent appears vulnerable. Florida, as usual, has its own brand of intrigue. Gubernatorial Candidate Charlie Crist ran a perfect race in 2006, running as a moderate in the Republican Primary, leaving Democratic candidate Jim Davis no place to go when he received the Democratic nomination. Crist had primary opposition from Tom Gallagher who billed himself as the conservative in the race. When Gallagher’s primary challenge failed, Crist had an easy general election. Crist is trying to follow the same path in setting up his race for the Senate, i.e., in 2010, get everybody out of the primary so he can run as a moderate. For instance, pressure has been put on Congressman Connie Mack IV to withdraw from the race. Several other individuals are looking to run, such as the Former Speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio from the Miami area.

Crist believes that in the general election Republican voters will have no where else to go. The Democrats are looking for at least two more seats in the Senate to take total control of that body (sixty is the key number). Republicans will rally around Crist, as the last thing the conservative Republicans in Florida want to do is give President Obama a free ride when it comes to the nomination of Supreme Court judges. There are a number of Democrats who are talking about running for the Senate, but so far no real heavyweight. Congressman Meeks is the front runner at the moment and has raised well over $1 million. Potential Democratic candidates are sitting back to see where Charlie Crist ends up.

The other key race in Florida is the Governor’s race. If Crist stays he will have little Republican opposition. The only Democratic cabinet officer, Alex Sink, who now plans to run for Governor, will pass or may run for the Senate if Crist stays where he is. It is no secret that Attorney General Bill McCollum is interested in running for Governor if Crist doesn’t run. It is extremely doubtful that he will challenge Crist, if Crist runs for reelection. Just recently Charlie Bronson, Secretary of Agriculture, who is term-limited out, has announced that he is looking at running for Governor if Crist doesn’t. Lurking in the background is the 800-pound gorilla Former Governor Jeb Bush. He and Crist are not close. Many insiders believe that Rubio is supported by Bush and will get out if Bush decides to run. If Bush runs for the Senate, Crist will run for Governor. If this sounds like a Chinese crossword puzzle it is. Crist and Bush are the two key players. It is just another year of Florida politics where musical chairs, chicken (who blinks first) and whose ego is the biggest, is involved.

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Lou Frey represented Central Florida in the U. S. Congress from 1969 to 1979. In his last election, he received nearly 80% of the vote. He was elected one of five Republican leaders in the House of Representatives during the 93rd and 94th Congress. He served on...