In the most recent Rhodes Cook Letter (Feb 2009) there is another excellent analysis of the Congress and the Democratic majorities (you can subscribe to The Rhodes Cook Letter by writing to P.O. Box 574, Annandale, VA 22003). The Democrats have controlled the House and Senate with varying majorities since Franklin Roosevelt. Republicans have controlled the House only for a total of 16 years and the Senate by barely 20. In the last 76 years, the GOP High Water mark during that time was 240 seats in the House and 55 seats in the Senate. Over half of the time in the 76-year-period, Democratic members of the House and Senate eclipsed the Republican high water marks. In 20 of the 39 House elections, the Democrats have won more than 246 seats and in 20 of the 39 Senate elections, elected more than 55 Senators. When the Democrats won they won big unlike the Republicans.

Today the Democrats have 257 in the House, 56 in the Senate and because Lieberman (I-CT) and Sanders (I-VT) caucus with the Democrats, brings the total to 58. It could reach 59 depending on the results of the Senate race in Minnesota. When you analyze it nationally, the Democrats control 81% of the House seats in the Northeast, 64% in the West, 55% in the Mid-west and 44% in the South. Rhodes Cook further points out “the Democrats currently possess two-thirds of all House seats in States outside the South.” Despite these overwhelming numbers the rules of the House can cause problems for the majority if they don’t have absolute control of their members.

It is vital for the majority to keep its members together in both bodies. For instance, just recently a bill that had been stopped in the Congress for many years has moved through both bodies without any real problem. That bill entitled the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act cleared a major hurdle in the Senate when the cloture vote of 62/34 ensured that the Senate can kill debate and force a vote on it. This bill would allow the member from the District to vote on the floor of the House of Representatives. The next question will be whether the District will have two US Senators, a much more important issue than one member in the House.

For some years the Blue Dog Democrats were the only Democratic group that challenged the philosophically liberal majority in the House. These are a group of mainly moderate Democrats from socially-conservative rural, largely-southern districts. They have a little more than 50 members, and thus could not impact votes in the House unless they worked out an agreement with the Republicans. However, there is now another group of Democrats called the New Democratic Coalition which also has approximately 50 members. New Democrats tend to represent socially-progressive wealthier suburban areas, and are generally newer on the scene than the Blue Dog Democrats. Just recently these two groups worked together to kill a proposal from the Democratic House Leadership regarding a bankruptcy provision in a mortgage bill that they felt was anti-business. This was the first real sign that the rush of legislation from President Obama may slow down. However, the leadership of the House after several weeks’ worth of lobbying got the legislation through with minor changes.

The legislative impact of the Blue Dog Democrats and the New Democratic Coalition has a long way to go before it can force the Democratic Leadership to moderate its positions. The budget and the deficit is the Blue Dog’s prime issue. The second area of difference from the Democratic Leadership pushed by the New Democrats is legislation to promote free trade, encourage high tech and push financial regulatory reform with stricter oversight. I know to some this may sound like inside the beltway talk and not really important. This is not the case. If you know the rules and know how to use them you have an advantage. If you know the rules and know how to use them and have the votes, you have a real advantage. We’ll follow this closely over the next two years.

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Lou Frey represented Central Florida in the U. S. Congress from 1969 to 1979. In his last election, he received nearly 80% of the vote. He was elected one of five Republican leaders in the House of Representatives during the 93rd and 94th Congress. He served on...