An interesting phenomenon is taking place in the State of Florida which has national implications. Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL) has announced recently that he is not going to run in 2010. An open Senate seat normally creates a free-for-all among heavyweights, but just the opposite has happened.

At first the rumor mill was alive with the assertion that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would run as a prelude to looking at the Presidency. Bush quickly announced he was not interested in running for the Senate, but left alive the issue of what could happen in 2012 if Obama was in trouble, or in 2016. Florida’s Attorney General Bill McCollum soon thereafter announced that he was interested in running for the Senate. He has done an outstanding job as Attorney General and has a statewide base from his run against Martinez in the Republican primary in 2004, and for Attorney General in 2006. Just recently he announced he was not going to run even though he was slightly ahead in the initial polls, but would run again for Attorney General.

On the Democratic side, Alex Sink, one of three cabinet officers, who is Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, is leading statewide. She has been carefully building a strong statewide organization. However, she announced that she wasn’t going to run for the Senate, but was keeping her options open to run for Governor. One of the strongest Democrats in the state is Congressman Allen Boyd from North Florida. He was first elected in 1996. Boyd is a member of the Appropriations Committee and is also a leader of the Blue Dog Democrats. Many people felt if he could get the nomination he would be difficult to beat in the general election. However, he just recently announced he wasn’t going to run but was going to stay in the House where his power is growing by the year.

All of this has left speculation that Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R) would decide to run for the Senate instead of Governor in 2010. He is the only heavyweight left.

Why is it that the heavyweights are bailing out of the race? One of the obvious reasons is the incredible fundraising requirement, which could reach $20 million per candidate for the Senate in 2010. However, there is another reason and that is no one is sure of what is going to happen during the next two years. A few things are clear. In the Senate run-off race in Georgia, held after last fall’s election, Chambliss (R-GA), who had 49.8% of the vote in the November election won by 57% of the vote in December of 2008. Large numbers of African-American voters did not turn out. Several days later in Louisiana incumbent Democratic Congressman William Jefferson was defeated. Voting again was light with 70,000 less votes than on November 4th. Politicians reading the tea leaves understand that the Obama election was a unique election involving a special individual. Without Obama on the ticket the African-American vote is not going to turn out as much, nor will the young people in 2010.

There are many unanswered questions, such as: Can the Democrats continue to out-raise the Republicans? Can the Obama organization survive poor economic times? What can the Democratic Party do to re-energize the African-American vote and the youth vote? Can the Democratic Party reach more into the Hispanic vote or will the economy drive some Hispanics back to the Republican Party? Will Charlie Crist change his mind at the last minute and jump into the race? Crist certainly would be the favorite in the Republican primary and in the general election. Republicans are worried about the incredible fundraising ability of President Obama and the Democratic Party. They are worried about President Obama’s ability to connect with voters. They are worried that the registration drive of the Democrats, which was probably the deciding factor in the presidential election, will continue and turn red states into blue states.

These are just some of the questions that an individual thinking of running for the U.S. Senate has to face. These same questions can be repeated in many states where people are making a decision about what to do in 2010. The response to these questions in Florida is: Why take a chance? There are too many unknowns at the present time, no person or party has the advantage, and who wants to raise $15 to $20 million over the next two years? However, many new and unknown players statewide are undeterred by these potential problems. Congressman Kendrick Meek (D-FL), Congressman Connie Mack IV (R-FL), Congressman Ron Klein (D-FL), State Senator Dan Gelber (D-FL), and Former House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-FL) are just some of the individuals who are talking about running. What a unique opportunity for someone going from a statewide unknown to the junior Senator from Florida. Who will win is anybody’s guess. If you have some money you are probably better off taking it to Vegas and betting it on red or black. At least you have close to a 50% chance.

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Lou Frey represented Central Florida in the U. S. Congress from 1969 to 1979. In his last election, he received nearly 80% of the vote. He was elected one of five Republican leaders in the House of Representatives during the 93rd and 94th Congress. He served on...