Republican Senator Mel Martinez of Florida recently announced that he will not run for re-election in 2010. Senator Martinez has an outstanding record of public service. He served as Orange County Mayor from 1998 to 2001. He was then appointed by President Bush to be Secretary of HUD in 2001. He served through 2003 when he announced he would run for the United States Senate. He was elected in 2004. In the United States Senate he has been involved in housing issues and tried very hard to reach across the aisle to put together an immigration bill. Senator Martinez is respected on both sides of the aisle, and in my opinion is one of the few Republican Senators who have the ability to get support from his Democratic colleagues.

It is somewhat unusual to have an open Senate seat without somebody dying in office. This is a high priority target and there is incredible interest in it within the State of Florida. However, before too many people get excited, I believe everybody has to step back and see what Florida’s former Gov. Jeb Bush wants to do. Jeb was a good governor, served two terms and was popular when he left office. I believe right now the Bushes are getting together to talk about Jeb’s future. The key question is - does Jeb want to be President of the United States? If he doesn’t want to be President his decision is relatively easy. He doesn’t have to run for the Senate, but can sit on the sidelines to see if at some point in the future he would like to take a crack at the Senate. If he wants to run for President he has to run for Senate now. In 2010 he has to prove to Republican voters across the Country that he can win in Florida despite the Bush name, and that in the Senate he can become a legislative leader. I think right now Republicans are “Bushed-out.” I also believe Jeb Bush has the ability to change that feeling over the next four to eight years. If Obama does a good job there would be no sense running in 2012, but he could wait until 2016. If Bush is elected to the Senate in 2010 he would be entering his first term in 2016, good timing from Jeb Bush’s standpoint.

On the Republican side, if Jeb doesn’t run, it probably will be easier to list those not interested. The same can be said on the Democratic side. Some of the ones expressing interest include Florida CFO Alex Sink, who is anxious to run for Senator or Governor. Congressman Allen Boyd from North Florida would be a formidable candidate, especially if he can survive the Democratic primary. Congresswoman Kathy Castor from the Tampa area, whose mother ran against Mel Martinez and lost, is interested. I could go on and on.

One final rumor has been floating around. It involves Governor Crist. The theory is that Senator Martinez will resign with about a year to go in office. Governor Crist will also resign and the Lt. Governor will become Governor. The new Governor then will appoint Crist to the Senate to fill out the term and run in 2010. This is something for a writer to make into a best seller. I don’t think there is a chance of it happening but only mention it as two years ago who could have believed that a first term African-American Senator with little experience would be elected President of the United States.

By the way the Senate seat in Florida, unlike Illinois, is not for sale.

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Lou Frey represented Central Florida in the U. S. Congress from 1969 to 1979. In his last election, he received nearly 80% of the vote. He was elected one of five Republican leaders in the House of Representatives during the 93rd and 94th Congress. He served on...