Well over a year ago, before the New Hampshire primary, John McCain’s campaign had imploded. His campaign had misspent much of the money raised and he was written off for dead by nearly every political observer. He could pay only a few staffers and did not have a jet to fly around in. He put what few assets he had, including himself, in New Hampshire. For McCain it was win or leave the race and to the surprise of many he won and went on to become the Republican nominee.

The task that he now faces is tougher than his primary survival and nomination. His problem is that Obama is playing in McCain’s territory. By that I mean McCain is trying to keep states that have previously gone Republican in his column. Most of Obama’s “Democratic” states are secure. McCain has little chance to take a state that has gone Democratic in the last two elections. To explain, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia, are states that in the past have been solid Republican states. However, Obama is challenging in all these states and they are now rated as “toss-ups.” The biggest surprise is North Carolina. President Bush won the state in 2000 and 2004 by over 10 percentage points. Polls now show that Obama is within 3 points of McCain, and one poll says the race is even. Libby Dole (R-NC), who was expected to have an easy re-election, is also in trouble in the polls, a reflection of the changing population of North Carolina.

Since the economic collapse Obama has overtaken McCain’s lead nationwide, and in almost every poll is leading. The amazing fact in Florida is that McCain is not too far behind and has a chance of pulling out Florida. It’s easy to see the voting patterns in Florida. Southeast Florida is heavily Democratic. Southwest Florida is heavily Republican. The north part of Florida, basically from I-4 north is generally Republican. The race is usually won or lost in the I-4 corridor, stretching from Daytona on the east coast over to Tampa and St Petersburg on the west coast. McCain is leading in the eastern part of that area (Orlando), but is trailing in the western part (Tampa – St Pete.).

My feeling that McCain will win Florida is based on several items. First, Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) is incredibly popular in the Dade County area and his work for Sen. McCain will pick up votes that normally are not Republican. Second, Gov. Charlie Crist remains popular and will help along the west coast of Florida. Third, the Republican Party has a good get-out-the-vote campaign plus an absentee ballot campaign, which has proved effective in the past. The Democrats have increased their registration in the state by over 100,000 voters, which if they turn a large percentage of those voters out, could off-set the Republican effort. I believe that you can’t rely on the polls anymore because people will deliberately mislead pollsters. Also people may not be telling the truth about who they will vote for because of their feeling about gender and race. Florida will be another squeaker. I only hope and pray there will be no “hanging chads.”

Nationally, McCain has too many states to defend around the country, such as Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. He can’t lose any of them. This is possible, but not probable. As of today you have to give the nod to Obama.

Another problem that Republicans face is in the U.S. Senate, now 51 to 49 Democratic. Most political insiders would agree that the Republicans have nine seats that are in jeopardy. There are three open seats, Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, with Virginia a done deal for the Democrats. There are also six Republican incumbents who are in trouble in Alaska, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon. It would be ironic if the Democrats end up with 59 seats and need Lieberman (ID-CT) to give them the power to cut off debates. On the other hand, if the Democrats win the presidency and don’t need Lieberman, you can be sure his seniority will be taken away from him for supporting McCain. Stay tuned. It’s not over ‘till its over.

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Lou Frey represented Central Florida in the U. S. Congress from 1969 to 1979. In his last election, he received nearly 80% of the vote. He was elected one of five Republican leaders in the House of Representatives during the 93rd and 94th Congress. He served on...