Sometimes a political party can outsmart itself. Republicans were elated when the Republican-controlled State Legislature changed the election rules so that instead of a runoff primary which had been customary in Florida for years, there was a one-time primary with the highest vote getter becoming the nominee. Most political analysts felt that this would be favorable to the Republicans as Governor Bush would have no opposition and many Democrats were looking at running. Three Democrats did run. Republicans wanted Janet Reno to win. As we know, McBride narrowly beat Janet Reno with Senator Jones, the African-American candidate coming in third. Polls showed that only 9% of the African American voters favored McBride. If there were a run-off, most of the African-American vote would have gone to Reno, making her the Democrat nominee. The Republicans aren't the only ones who have pushed through legislation and had it go the other way. Some years ago, the runoffs were in April and May. As the Republican party started to grow, the Democrats in the Legislature decided to change the runoffs to September and October. The political reason was that there would be no "official" Republican nominee until September or in some cases, October, giving Republicans a minimal time to campaign. This worked for many years until the Republicans became the majority party and then the change worked against the Democrats.

Despite the closeness of the primary and the delay in deciding it, the Democrats, thanks to Janet Reno's gracious concession speech, are united against Bush. The choice of Senator Rossin from Palm Beach as the Lt. Governor nominee is not a good choice. He is a liberal Democrat who appeals to many in southeast Florida. However, they are going to vote heavily against Bush anyway. A more interesting choice might have been Senator Darryl Jones, who was a strong vote getter with 12% of the statewide vote. The Democrat problem is not ensuring that African-Americans vote for McBride, but ensuring a large voter turnout. There are 860,000 registered African-American voters in Florida and in 2000, 600,000 voted. There is some anger left in the minority communities from the 2000 election. But this is not as much a motivating force as if Jones had been on the ticket. The Democrats have some momentum and feel that Bush is vulnerable on the election issue (unfairly) and with more justification, the missing children. Democrats outregister Republicans in the state by over 400,000. Finally, McBride will be well financed, as national money will come in order to beat Governor Bush and hurt President Bush.

On the Republican side, the Governor and Lt. Governor are energetic and hard working. They have a solid record to run on. The Governor has not had nor will have problems raising money both in Florida and nationally. The popularity of President Bush nationally will be a plus in the campaign. Getting the Republicans and conservative Democrats to vote, especially in the I-4 corridor, is going to be critical to the Bush reelection effort. Despite all the money, grass roots campaigning may be the difference in the campaign. It is my guess that this will be a much closer race than previously projected. I believe Bush will be the winner with 53.8% of the vote. However, I also thought Florida would lose to Tennessee (although I was rooting for Florida).

Lou Frey represented Central Florida in the U. S. Congress from 1969 to 1979. In his last election, he received 78% of the vote. He was elected one of five Republican leaders in the House of Representatives during the 93^rd and 94^th Congress. He served on...