So there is no misunderstanding of what I am going to write, I am against the health care bill for a number of reasons. There is no way it will reduce the deficit. The government will be more in control of health care with 118 new boards and commissions. There has never been a bill of over 2,000 pages that ever saved money. More government equals more cost.
If I was a political “hired gun” I would look at the health care issue from a purely practical political viewpoint, I would make the following recommendations to President Obama. Work hard to pass the health care bill. Your strong supporters, i.e., liberals, African-Americans, labor unions, and trial lawyers will be pleased with your efforts. Do not make any sleazy deals for votes. The best thing that can happen to you, Mr. President, is if health care loses. At that point you can blame the Republicans for what has happened and at the same time sprint back to the middle, as President Clinton did. Concentrate from here on out on creating jobs, improving education, and reducing the deficit. You will not only save many Democratic House seats, but you can reassure your re-election in 2012.
If on the other hand you win, you could only do it by putting many Democratic House members in jeopardy. Many have had to vote once on the health care issue, and the last thing they want to do is vote one more time. You have already had them vote with you on cap and trade. Many Democratic House members are in districts that were carried either by Bush and/or McCain in 2004 and 2008. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has said that many of these members are willing to vote with you even if they lose their seats. Of course that is easy for Nancy Pelosi to say because the district she represents is even more liberal that she is. You will lose many House seats and could even lose control of the House.
Mr. President, as you have seen in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts, your health care proposals are not winning you additional friends. Your popularity is down. I understand that you don’t want to back off and appreciate that fact. However if you lose, you can have the best of both worlds. Over the next few years you can introduce small parts of your health bill, which will involve the more non-controversial items that you proposed and which will pass with some bipartisan support.
Do I think this is what President Obama is going to do? No. I believe that he truly wants to pass the bill. It is just ironic that from a political standpoint a loss may turn out to be a win and vice versa.
On another Washington subject. Usually once a Congressional term the House Foreign Relations Committee considers a bill condemning the Turks for the 1915 slaughter of Armenians. The vote is usually close in the committee. This time it passed by a one-vote margin (23-22), and as usual there is incredibly negative reaction to this in Turkey. The committee hearing was carried live on Turkish television and radio news channels. The Turks called their US ambassador back as they did in 2007 for “consultation” when a similar resolution passed. We will now spend a lot of political capital trying to re-establish good relations between the United States and Turkey, a much needed ally. Anyone in the Congress knows that this resolution will never become law and if it did President Obama would veto it. But it doesn’t make any difference. We go through this dance every few years and the losers are both the United States and Turkey. The winners are the members of Congress who have a great many Armenians in their district. This is another example where internal U.S. politics causes international problems.
Links to video programs:
Sunday, January 24, 2010 Flashpoint with Lauren Rowe WKMG-TV Political Rules of the Road. You may view by clicking on this link or copying and pasting it into your browser:
http://www.clickorlando.com/video/22298882/index.html
December 4, 2009 Political Rules and Congress in the C-SPAN Video Library. You may view by clicking on this link or copying and pasting it into your browser:
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/program/290436-6
