I had a chance to lean back, have a cup of coffee, and try and figure out what was going to happen in the Republican primary both before and after Florida votes. I am writing this before the Tuesday, January 31st election day.
I have heard all sort of numbers floated around but my guess is there will be close to 250,000 absentee ballots in Florida and that most of these are a result of work of the Romney campaign. I am estimating that he will beat Gingrich in the absentee ballots by a net of 220,000 votes as Gingrich had no such effort. In 2008 the turnout was 1,949,498; half of that is 974,000. If the turnout is the same the absentee ballots represent over 20% of the needed vote.
Early voting is going on in Florida now and Newt will benefit from that because of his bounce out of South Carolina. He can’t make up for the large lead the absentee ballots have given Romney through the early voting ballots. The race in Florida will be close. Newt needed to win the Thursday debate decisively. He did not. He was just good which gives the election to Romney in Florida. When all the noise dies down, it will be difficult to realize that only 5% of all the delegates needed to win the nomination have been chosen during the Republican’s first four events in January.
There will be no further activity until March 4th. The Maine caucus will take place from the 4th to 11th with 24 delegates at stake. The Nevada caucus is on February 4th with 28 delegates. On February 7th the Colorado caucus will have 36 delegates and the Minnesota caucus 40 delegates. On February 28th the Arizona primary will have 29 delegates and on February 28th the Michigan primary will have 30 delegates. The Washington caucus on March 3rd will have 43 delegates.
When all these caucuses and primaries are settled only 15% of the delegates will be chosen. Remember, there are 2,285 delegates and you need 1,143 to win.
The elections and caucuses coming up look like they have been designed by Romney people for the governor. Romney should win Maine, right next to Massachusetts. Gingrich won’t sell well there. Romney should do very well in the Nevada caucus because of the large number of Mormons in the state and the very poor economy. Romney has strong ties in Colorado (the Olympics) and even stronger ties in Minnesota. His father was the governor of Michigan and the Romney name still carries a great deal of weight. Arizona is another state whose economy is just as bad as Florida. Romney’s ideas on the economy should sell well. The Washington caucus with 43 delegates could be a toss up. Overall Romney should come out of these primaries and caucuses with a good lead in the delegate count. Again, only 15% of the delegates will have been selected by March 3rd.
Television:
Bright House Networks | Central Florida News 13
WKMG Local 6 Flashpoint with Lauren Rowe
WOFL Channel 35 FOX News
Links to video programs:
C-SPAN Program February 10, 2011 “Congressional Politics”
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/CongressionalPoliti
C-SPAN Program October 21, 2010 “State of Politics in Washington”
Lou Frey and Former Members discuss politics and Political Rules of the Road
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/296139-1
The Lou Frey Institute of Politics and Government
2011 Fall Symposium: Campaign 2012: New Rules of the Road?
http://loufreyinstitute.org/symposia/2011/fall
2011 Spring Symposium: U.S. and China: What Does the Future Hold?
http://loufreyinstitute.org/symposia/2011/spring
Radio:
Mark Simpson with Lou Frey and Dick Batchelor tape INTERSECTION 30-minute radio show on WMFE-FM 90.7. The show is recorded usually on the 1st Monday of the month, it then runs on the 1st Tuesday of the month at 9:30 a.m. and the 1st Wednesday of the month at 6:30 p.m. and the 1st Saturday of the month at 7:30 a.m.
Frey appears on the BUD HEDINGER SHOW WFLA-AM 540 at 8:05 a.m. every Monday
Frey appears on the FLORIDA RADIO NETWORK at various times depending on what is Breaking News
