The conventions draw near and the biggest area of speculation is the vice presidential candidates. Let me play handicapper and talk about what I think is going to happen. On the Democratic side, as on the Republican side, there aren’t many potential vice presidential candidates left standing.
It is clear that Obama needs someone who is older and has foreign policy experience. The recent events in Georgia make this need even more important. It would also help if they were from the Midwest where the campaign will be won or lost. It would be a further help if they fill a niche, (i.e., woman, Hispanic, veteran, etc.) Based on these parameters, I believe that one of the favorites is the senator from Delaware, Joe Biden (5 to 1). Senator Biden has been in the Senate since January 1973. He has extensive foreign policy experience and has been on the Committee on Foreign Relations, both as a ranking member and chairman for some time. He has a good record, is married with children and is a Roman Catholic.
The next candidate, who is a long shot (60 to 1), is the governor of Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius. I had the privilege of serving with her father Keith Sebelius, a Republican congressman from Kansas for a number of years. She was first elected as governor in 2003 and was re-elected to a second term in 2006. She has been married for a long time, has several children and has run as an “Independent.” The groups that are supporting her the most are those in favor of abortion. Her nomination could please a lot of women who are unhappy about Hillary not getting the presidential nomination.
The third potential candidate, and in the minds of many the front runner (3 to 1), is the senator from Indiana, Evan Bayh. He was first elected to the Senate in January 1999. He previously served as governor of Indiana from 1989 thru 1997. He is married, has two children and is a Protestant. He has served on the Armed Services Committee and the Select Committee on Intelligence, both assets to the Obama campaign. He is well-spoken and believable.
Finally, I am probably one of the few people in the United States who believes that the Democratic nominee for vice president could be Hillary Clinton. The political reasons are compelling. To begin with, she amassed millions and millions of votes throughout the country. She had, and still has, a strong base of women who feel that she should have gotten the nomination. Their anger has been refueled by their belief that if the press had done their job and covered the Edwards affair he would have been out of the race before Iowa and she would have had a walk-in. Furthermore, she pummeled Obama in the Midwest, amassing a large lead among blue collar workers who are key in those pivotal states such as Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Can you imagine Bill Clinton, who speaks on Wednesday at the convention, ending up his speech by telling the convention that he is nominating his wife for vice president with or without the consent of Obama? The convention would go wild. The Democrats would be united. It would probably give Obama a 5% to 10% bump in the poll numbers. The other issue is the downside of not having her as the vice president nominee. If she is not selected, who knows what former President Clinton will do during the campaign. No matter who Obama picks (except perhaps Sebelius) the many women who support Hillary throughout the country will be angry. If she knows ahead of time she is not going to be picked, what she does with her delegates and how they handle themselves during the convention, will be another major problem. In addition, Obama has not been able to shake McCain who trails, but not by much. However, it appears clear that Obama does not want her on the ticket. Because of this, she is a 25 to 1 long shot. Personally, I hope she is not picked because I think this would be the best Democratic ticket.
On the Republican side, there are four to choose from. A former member of Congress who was elected in 2005 and recently became governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal is not on my list. He has a bright future, but this is not his time.
The long shot (50 to 1) is former Congressman Rob Portman, who was a member of the House and the House Leadership. He then became the U.S. Trade Representative and head of OMB (Office of Management and Budget). He is married, has a family, is young and is from the Cincinnati area of Ohio. Location, Location, Location.
The second candidate is former Congressman, governor of Pennsylvania, and head of Homeland Security, Tom Ridge (5 to 1). Tom is Catholic, pro-choice and from one of the key swing states in the election. The conservatives are not wild about him because of his stance on abortion. However, besides Pennsylvania, he can have an impact in nearby states such as Ohio, Michigan and Indiana, especially with the blue collar workers and the many Catholics who live in those areas.
The next candidate is the governor of Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty. He has run as a reform-minded governor, bringing accountability to government and someone who has balanced Minnesota’s budget. He previously served as a City Council member and then a ten-year member of the Minnesota House of Representatives, including four years as the House Minority Leader. Under the Governor’s leadership, Minnesota leads the nation in a variety of measures, ranks first among states in Fortune 500 companies per capita, first in overall quality of life, first in homeownership, first in percentage of residents with a high school diploma, and first in residents over 25 with a bachelor’s degree. Minnesota has the highest average ACT scores in the nation and was recently named the “Healthiest State in America.” He is the right age in the right part of the country with the right background (not a senator). I believe he is an 8 to 1 shot.
Lastly, I believe the favorite by a small margin is Mitt Romney (3 to 1). Romney is the right age with the maturity that sets him apart as a potential president. He did an incredible job saving the U.S. Olympics a few years ago. He was the governor of Massachusetts and gained a great deal of executive experience in that job. He knows the business world and can be a big help to McCain on economic issues. He also may be able to help McCain carry Michigan, the state where he was from and where his father was governor many years ago.
Obama has to go first. Depending on his choice, it may make a difference on whom McCain picks.
